Political Science Professor Sheds Light on Florida’s Redistricting Special Session

The redistricting process in Florida could prove pivotal in the fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

“There’s a very thin majority for control, and people are expecting Democrats to make some inroads, and Republicans are trying to draw more favorable districts to stem the tide and hopefully do enough to keep Democrats from having majority control,” explains political science professor Patrick Rickert. “So Florida is really the last opportunity for Republicans to gain some additional seats,” he continues.

Republicans currently hold 20 of the state’s 28 congressional seats. Any redraw is expected to focus on Democratic-leaning areas, including Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida.

Florida’s state legislature passed a new congressional map on Wednesday that could allow Republicans to flip up to four seats.

It now goes to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had proposed it earlier this week after teasing mid-decade redistricting for months. The governor has argued that Florida’s population growth and other legal issues meant the state had to redraw its map.

The new map, analysts say, could leave just four Democratic-held districts in the state after the 2026 midterms. However, it’s likely to face legal challenges, particularly because Florida’s constitution includes the Fair Districts Amendments, which prohibit drawing congressional districts “with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent.” The amendments also include protections for minority voters and require districts to be contiguous.

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